EBRD

Transition Report 2012 INTEGRATION ACROSS BORDERS

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Chapter 2

Trade

The onset of the eurozone crisis has led to a significant decline in exports from many transition countries, and in particular from all CEB and SEE states since the autumn of 2011 (see Chart 2.11). In contrast, countries further east enjoyed strong nominal export growth until mid 2012, before a dip in oil prices and the widening global slow-down led to a reversal. As Russian growth decelerated and its imports declined in the second quarter of 2012, countries in Central Asia and the EEC region experienced a drop in exports. The largest decline was seen in Azerbaijan where oil exports fell significantly in the first half of 2012.

Source: National authorities via CEIC Data.
Note: Export data are in US dollar values.

The variation in export performance across the region can in part be attributed to different levels of exposure to the eurozone. The growth of imports to the single currency area gradually decelerated in 2011 and their volume began to decline as the crisis intensified late in the year. Transition countries with deeper trade linkages to the eurozone have seen steeper declines in exports than those with weaker ties (see Chart 2.12).

Source: National authorities via CEIC Data.
Note: Export data are in US dollar values.

However, falling exports have been offset by an even faster decline in imports in some transition countries in the second half of 2011. Trade balances have thus largely improved, except in the SEMED region where rising imports and weak export performance have led to widening deficits. 

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